Strait of hormuz shipping traffic is rising, but the strait is still far from normal
The latest vessel data shows a meaningful increase in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. But the recovery remains highly uneven, and container shipping is still operating far below normal patterns.
The Strait of Hormuz is seeing more commercial vessel movements, but the latest data does not support the conclusion that the strategic waterway has reopened to normal shipping.
Lloyd’s List Intelligence reported on September 30 that non-Iranian-linked transits increased to 117 during September 14–20, from 106 the previous week. Tanker and gas-carrier movements rose particularly sharply, to 95 from 82. September is on course to become the busiest month since the conflict began, excluding the temporary period covered by the June memorandum of understanding. Lloyd’s List Intelligence
That sounds like a recovery. For container shipping, however, the picture is very different.
More ships are moving, but container shipping remains marginal
The most important distinction in the latest data is between energy shipping and container shipping.
Lloyd’s List Intelligence recorded at least 379 non-Iranian-linked voyages through Hormuz during September. But only 15 of those were containership transits, almost twice August’s figure but still negligible compared with normal commercial traffic. The container movements are being maintained largely by Abu Dhabi-linked feeder vessels operating short regional services between UAE ports and Pakistan and India’s west coast. Major container lines continue to avoid the area. Lloyd’s List Intelligence
That distinction matters because a gradual return of tankers does not automatically mean a return of global liner shipping.
For a container carrier, the decision to use Hormuz involves a much broader risk calculation: vessel insurance, crew safety, schedule reliability, potential restrictions on routing and the ability to offer customers a predictable service.
As a result, the current increase in traffic should be interpreted as partial operational recovery, not normalization.
The security assessment has not improved
The Joint Maritime Information Center continued to assess the maritime security threat in the Strait as severe.
According to the September 30 Lloyd’s List assessment, JMIC considers deliberate hostile action highly likely. The report also says a Kuwait Oil Tanker Company-managed tanker was struck by a suspected projectile on September 28. The vessel remained underway, although the extent of any damage had not been disclosed. Lloyd’s List Intelligence
That creates an unusual operating environment.
More vessels are willing to transit, but the underlying risk assessment has not moved correspondingly lower.
In practical terms, this means that traffic volumes cannot be interpreted as a proxy for safety.
Energy flows are recovering faster than container networks
The increase in tanker and gas-carrier movements is significant because Hormuz remains critical to Gulf energy exports.
Lloyd’s List recorded 95 tanker and gas-carrier transits during September 14–20, compared with 82 in the preceding week. Bulk carrier movements have also remained relatively active. Lloyd’s List Intelligence
But container logistics operate differently.
A tanker carrying a high-value energy cargo has a different economic structure from a scheduled liner service carrying thousands of containers across multiple ports. Container networks depend on predictable rotations, connections, transshipment and inland delivery.
A carrier cannot simply resume a normal liner service through a high-risk chokepoint because a limited number of vessels have successfully crossed it.
That is why the current data is more significant for what it does not yet show than for the absolute number of ships crossing the Strait.
The cost impact is already reaching shippers
The operational uncertainty is being reflected directly in freight pricing.
CMA CGM has announced an Emergency Fuel Surcharge effective October 1, citing renewed escalation around the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb and the resulting increase in bunker prices.
The surcharge is $265 per TEU for dry cargo and $320 per TEU for reefer cargo on head-haul movements. Back-haul and intra-regional movements are subject to lower charges of $75 per TEU for dry cargo and $90 for reefers. The measure applies until further notice. CMA CGM
The significance goes beyond the surcharge itself.
It demonstrates that even as some shipping traffic resumes, the market is still pricing a substantial risk and fuel premium into transportation costs.
Other October rate changes are also coming into force across major trades. Hapag-Lloyd, for example, is increasing rates from Northern Europe to North America and Mexico by $500 per 20-foot container and $800 per 40-foot container on several port pairs from October 1. Hapag-Lloyd
These individual increases have different causes and should not all be attributed to Hormuz. But together they illustrate the environment in which shippers are entering the fourth quarter: higher and more fragmented freight costs, with fuel and security increasingly embedded in pricing decisions.
What this means for shippers and trade professionals
The most important mistake would be to treat the latest increase in Hormuz traffic as a signal that normal routing can now be restored.
For cargo moving through or around the Gulf, shippers should continue to distinguish between:
- physical availability of a route;
- whether a carrier is actually using that route;
- the security conditions attached to the route;
- the additional insurance and fuel costs;
- schedule reliability; and
- the availability of alternative services.
For containerized cargo, the last point is particularly important. A route can technically be open while remaining commercially unattractive for a major liner operator.
That distinction can affect transit times, equipment positioning, transshipment options and ultimately inventory requirements.
What to watch next
The key indicator over the coming weeks will not simply be the number of vessels crossing Hormuz.
The more important question is whether major container carriers begin restoring regular liner services through the Strait.
The current evidence does not show that happening yet.
The second indicator will be bunker prices and carrier emergency surcharges. CMA CGM’s October 1 surcharge demonstrates that the cost consequences of the crisis are already being transmitted to shippers. CMA CGM
Finally, the security assessment will remain critical. If the threat level falls materially and sustained commercial transits increase across several vessel categories, the economics of routing through Hormuz could change quickly. Until then, higher traffic should be treated as selective recovery rather than normalization.
For international trade professionals, that distinction is crucial: the Strait of Hormuz is carrying more ships, but global shipping has not yet returned to normal through it.
Principal sources:
Lloyd’s List Intelligence — Strait of Hormuz Brief, 30 September 2026
CMA CGM — Emergency Fuel Surcharge, effective 1 October 2026
Hapag-Lloyd — North Europe to North America and Mexico rate announcement